How cold will it really be?

As my departure date gets closer, and the weather forecast is starting to overlap with my time in NY, I'm not positive I have a jacket suitable for the cold. I know it's not going to be blizzard-like, and it really shouldn't snow, but the days look like they'll have maximums in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Using my handy-dandy conversion chart, that tells me it'll be around 13°-18°, which is nippy but not awful. But then one place's 15° is almost pleasant, and another's is downright awful. Wind and wet air/drizzle in particular can make it a damn sight yuckier than the thermostat suggests.

Browsing through Amazon for jackets (I'll probably need one pretty much as soon as I arrive), I'm not sure whether I need to go the whole hog, or will something less full on be sufficient? Or will what I already have work fine? (Click on the image to go to the jacket's webpage)

A knee-length down parka would certainly keep me toasty warm, but I'd probably get very little wear from it here.

or

Alternatively, I could get a hip-length down jacket, which will also keep me pretty warm, and I can potentially use to go skiing and the like.


Or I can stick with my soft shell jacket, with a skivvy and cardi underneath.



One of the advantages of a warmer jacket is that I can wear lighter clothes underneath, which means I won't have to strip off multiple layers every time I go inside. On the other hand, I'm sitting here in my gently heated house (18C/65F) with a polar fleece jacket over my soft shell.

Help me! I'm racked with indecision. I need to place my order Monday night (in four days time), so you're timely feedback would be much appreciated!